I Predicted the 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup

The Women's World Cup is here.

Sixteen nations.

One trophy.

And for the first time in a while, I'm not completely convinced that the United States are going to simply walk through everybody.

That doesn't mean I think the Americans are suddenly vulnerable.

They are still the defending champions. They have won four consecutive Women's World Cups and 11 titles overall. They remain No. 1 in the FIBA Women's World Ranking, comfortably ahead of France and Australia.

But this tournament has changed.

The American roster has changed.

And the rest of the world has continued to close the gap.

A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum were both expected to be major pieces of this American team. Instead, both were ruled out for health reasons just days before the tournament. Wilson, a four-time WNBA MVP and two-time World Cup champion, is one of the biggest absences imaginable. Plum will also miss the remainder of the WNBA season after withdrawing from the World Cup.

In their place come two young Washington Mystics stars.

Kiki Iriafen brings another powerful interior option after averaging 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in her second WNBA season, while Sonia Citron arrives after an All-Star season of her own, averaging 16.8 points and 4.3 assists. For Citron, this will be her first senior USA Basketball tournament.

Suddenly, this feels a little less predictable.

And that's exactly what I want.

So, as I've done with my European football predictions, here's my attempt to predict the entire tournament.

Not a betting model.

Not a simulation.

Just my best guess.

Let's see how badly I get this wrong.

Group A

Spain, Germany, Japan, Mali

Pos.	Team	Prediction
1	Spain	3–0
2	Germany	2–1
3	Japan	1–2
4	Mali	0–3

Group Winner: Spain

Spain are my pick to win Group A.

They're one of the deepest basketball nations in the world, and this group gives them enough different styles to prepare them for the knockout rounds without necessarily threatening their position at the top.

Germany are my second-place team.

The home crowd should matter, and Germany have enough size and athleticism to make this group uncomfortable for everyone.

Japan are the dangerous third-place team.

Their pace and perimeter shooting can cause problems for anyone, but I don't think they'll have enough consistency to finish above Spain or Germany.

Mali are the underdogs.

Getting to Berlin is already significant, but this is an incredibly difficult group.

Player to Watch

Megan Gustafson (ESP)

A physical interior presence could become extremely important once Spain reach the knockout rounds.

Biggest Question

Can Japan's pace overwhelm Germany?

If Japan can dictate the tempo, this group could get very interesting.

Group B

France, Korea, Hungary, Nigeria

Pos.	Team	Prediction
1	France	3–0
2	Nigeria	2–1
3	Hungary	1–2
4	South Korea	0–3

Group Winner: France

France are one of the teams I think can actually challenge the United States for the championship.

They're ranked No. 2 in the world and have the size, athleticism and defensive structure to make life miserable for opponents.

I'm giving them all three games.

Nigeria are my surprise second-place team.

They are the reigning African champions and one of the most athletic teams in the tournament. Their qualification itself was impressive, and this is a group where their physicality could become a major advantage.

Hungary are good enough to steal a game.

South Korea have a difficult road ahead.

Player to Watch

Dominique Malonga (FRA)

Malonga represents the next generation of French basketball and could be one of the most important young players in the entire tournament.

Biggest Question

Can Nigeria turn athleticism into consistent half-court offense?

If they can, I think they can go much further than people expect.

Group C

Australia, Belgium, Puerto Rico, Türkiye

Pos.	Team	Prediction
1	Australia	3–0
2	Belgium	2–1
3	Türkiye	1–2
4	Puerto Rico	0–3

Group Winner: Australia

This might be the hardest group to predict.

Australia are ranked third in the world.

Belgium are fifth.

And Türkiye are good enough to make either of them work for it.

I'm giving Australia the group.

The Opals have one of the strongest basketball cultures in the world and have already proven they can win at this level.

Belgium finish second.

The reigning European champions are not a novelty anymore. They're a genuine world championship contender.

Türkiye are the team I'd keep an eye on.

They could absolutely ruin someone's bracket.

Player to Watch

Emma Meesseman (BEL)

If Belgium are going to win this tournament, Meesseman is probably going to have something to do with it.

She has already been one of the defining players of European women's basketball for years.

Biggest Question

Can Belgium beat Australia?

If they do, Group C immediately becomes one of the stories of the tournament.

Group D

USA, Czechia, Italy, China

Pos.	Team	Prediction
1	USA	3–0
2	China	2–1
3	Italy	1–2
4	Czechia	0–3

Group Winner: USA

Yes.

Even without A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum.

I'm still taking the United States to win this group.

The Americans still have Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier, Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Angel Reese, Jackie Young and now Iriafen and Citron.

That's an absurd amount of talent.

The updated roster is younger than originally planned, but perhaps that's exactly what makes it fascinating. Clark, Bueckers, Reese, Citron and Iriafen are all part of a new generation stepping into the senior World Cup environment.

China finish second.

They're ranked fourth in the world and have enough size and shooting to cause problems.

Italy take third.

Czechia are my fourth-place team, but I don't expect them to be an easy opponent.

Player to Watch

Kiki Iriafen (USA)

Aliyah Boston will be the main big now in charge with Wilson out.

How will Iriafen prove herself as she takes a big role coming off the bench?

Biggest Question

Can the United States replace A'ja Wilson's production by committee?

They don't need one player to become A'ja Wilson.

They need everyone to do a little more.

The Qualification Round

The new format makes this World Cup particularly interesting.

The four group winners go directly into the quarterfinals.

The second- and third-place teams have to survive a qualification round to get there. The tournament then moves into the quarterfinals, semifinals, third-place game and final.

That means finishing first isn't just about bragging rights.

It's a massive advantage.

My Predictions

Germany vs Hungary → Germany

Germany gets the benefit of playing at home and have one of the strongest depth charts outside the major powers.

Nigeria vs Japan → Nigeria

Japan's speed makes this dangerous, but Nigeria's physicality wins out.

Belgium vs Italy → Belgium

Belgium should have too much offensive firepower.

Türkiye vs China → China

China finishing second behind USA would mean they're coming into this game with a lot of confidence.

Quarterfinals

Spain vs Belgium

Winner: Spain

Spain's depth wins out.

France vs China

Winner: France

China can make this uncomfortable.

But France have too much defensive versatility.

Australia vs Germany

Winner: Australia

Germany have the home advantage, but Australia have more ways to attacking firepower.

USA vs Nigeria

Winner: USA

Nigeria could make it a nightmare for stretches.

The Americans eventually overwhelm them with depth.

Semifinals

Spain vs France

Winner: France

This is where I think France finally break through.

Spain's tactical discipline keeps this close, but France's physicality gives them just enough.

France are going to the final.

Australia vs USA

Winner: USA

And here comes the other side of my bracket.

Australia are good enough to make this a game.

But the United States still have too much.

Even without Wilson, there are simply too many ways for this team to hurt you.

USA go back to the final.

Third Place

Spain vs Australia

Winner: Spain

Belgium's run ends with a bronze medal.

A very successful tournament regardless.

The Final

USA vs France

This is the matchup I wanted.

The world's No. 1 team.

Against the world's No. 2.

The reigning champions.

Against the team that has come incredibly close before.

And this time, I think France make it a real fight.

The Americans will have to deal with the loss of Wilson's interior dominance and Plum's experience and scoring.

But that's exactly where I think the younger American players announce themselves.

Caitlin Clark creates.

Paige Bueckers scores.

Breanna Stewart controls the frontcourt.

Napheesa Collier does everything.

Angel Reese battles inside.

Kiki Iriafen gives the Americans another athletic interior option.

Sonia Citron gives them another perimeter player capable of defending and creating.

It's not the roster we expected.

But it's still an incredible roster.

My Champion

USA

Five in a row.

I wanted to pick someone else.

I really did.

But after looking at the entire field, I can't get away from the Americans.

France are my biggest threat.

Belgium are my favorite dark horse.

Australia could absolutely win this tournament.

Spain could make the final.

China could knock out a favorite.

Nigeria could be the surprise team of the tournament.

But when I actually have to put a champion on paper?

I'm taking the United States.

My Tournament Awards

Champion

USA

Runner-Up

France

Third Place

Spain

MVP

Breanna Stewart, USA

With Wilson gone, Stewart becomes even more important to the American frontcourt.

Breakout Player

Kiki Iriafen, USA

She wasn't originally expected to be on this roster.

Now she's heading into the biggest tournament of her young career.

That's one hell of an opportunity.

Surprise Team

Nigeria

I'm expecting them to make the knockout rounds and potentially push one of the tournament favorites.

Dark Horse

Belgium

They are much more than a dark horse at this point.

If Meesseman is playing at her best, Belgium can beat anyone.

Biggest Upset

Nigeria over Japan

This is the result I'm putting my name behind.

Team I Think Exceeds Expectations

China

A second-place finish in Group D followed by a deep knockout run would be a major statement.

Biggest Disappointment

Japan

Not because they're bad.

They're absolutely not.

But Group A is brutal, and I think their style eventually gets neutralized by bigger teams.

Five Players I'm Watching

Caitlin Clark

The attention will be enormous.

This is Clark's first senior World Cup, and she immediately enters it as one of the most recognizable players in the tournament.

Paige Bueckers

Another first-time senior World Cup player.

Her ability to create shots and control the game could become incredibly important for USA.

Emma Meesseman

Belgium's veteran superstar remains the player who can turn the Belgian team from a contender into a champion.

Dominique Malonga

One of the young players who could become one of the faces of French basketball for years to come.

Kiki Iriafen

Perhaps the most interesting name on this list.

She wasn't supposed to be here.

Now she's been handed one of the biggest opportunities of her career.

The World Cup Is Here

The 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup begins September 4 in Berlin and runs through September 13. The opening day includes USA-China, Japan-Mali, Australia-Puerto Rico and South Korea-Nigeria.

Sixteen teams.

Four groups.

A new format.

And one trophy.

The United States are still the team everyone has to beat.

But this doesn't feel like a tournament where everyone else is simply fighting for second.

France are close.

Australia are close.

Belgium are close.

Spain are close.

China are close.

And there are several teams capable of ruining somebody's entire tournament.

That's what makes this one so interesting.

The Americans are still my pick.

But I'm not expecting them to have an easy road to five straight.

And if France, Belgium or Australia finally break through?

I'll happily admit I got it wrong.

That's what predictions are for.

Theron Norrington

Founder & Editor, OffTheRecord

Independent journalism exploring the stories that shape sport, culture, and the world beyond the headlines.

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